Category Archives: betting

The Summer of LeBron is upon us. Again.

Where’s he going to go?

thinking-face emoji.png

If you’ve been reading my blog, I was the first to predict that he’d end up in Houston with his banana boat buddies CP3 and Me7o.

Let’s revisit my thoughts on this blog From August 2017….

lebron prediction.png

1 year later, I want no part of a Melo in a Rockets uniform- He’s aged faster than Ben Button gets younger this past year. Melo will be out of the league in 2 years or less.

Bron’s still got a good 6 years left…2-3 of which will be his prime.

Where he goes next will be a very crucial decision for his legacy

Vegas odds currently have him going to:

lebron odds.png

well well well…would you look at that?

If you’d have asked this question last year, NOBODY would have picked the Rockets. It would have been LA Lakers, San Antonio, LA Clippers, Boston, Phillidelphia, Cleveland.

But the Rockets had a stand out year,  and took the Warriors to 7. If Chris Paul doesn’t go down in game 6 of the Western Conference finals– who knows what would have happened.

I can’t wait for LeBron to join the Rockets in a month or so, because there’s nothing more I like saying than “I told you so”!

Salsa’s Annual Superbowl Prop Bets Guide (Year 2)

superbowl50

It’s that time again! Superbowl Prop bets are here:

Here’s my blog from last year (2015) where I went 6-3 in the props that mattered last year and I’m looking to do much better this year.

On we go.

National Anthem: Under 2:20 (-120)

Coin Toss: Tails (-105)

First score: Touchdown (-145) Panthers Touchdown (+150) Greg Olsen (+750)

SB MVP: Cam Newton (-130)

Gatorade color: Orange (+125)

Dabbing said: Under 2 (-140) PUSH

Cam superman pose: under 2.5 (-140)

will “left shark make an appearance”?: YES (+1500)

Buffalo Wild wings sold: Over 12 mill (-120)

Golden Gate bridge shown: Over .05 times (-300)

Coldplay’s 1st song: Sky full of Stars (+450)

Beyonce’s Shoe color: Gold or Brown (+250)

Will Peyton Announce Retirement: No (-1000)

Nielson Rating: Over 48.5

Superbowl MVP mentions who first: God (say pey.gif+200)

And your final 2 bets:

Carolina -5

Over 43.5 Scored 

I’m looking at a 37-17 final. Carolina winning easily.

 

Now go out there, enjoy some food, and make some money.

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EDIT- Went 7-9 this year, and was way off on Carolina. Winners in Green, Losers-Red.

The Future of Sports Television, Gambling, and Prop Bets

ipadYesterday I was browsing around sports talk radio when I came upon Darren Rovell who’s the business analyst for ESPN that casually mentioned a very intriguing idea.

He said that we need to have a live twitter game feed that you can move in a window to the side of the screen while you can scroll for content. Periscope uses a similar feature to this where you can “go live” and respond to questions in real time, but you get bombarded with trolls and dumb questions and lame crap. Having a live game feed where you could simultaneously browse what you wanted while watching the game would be an awesome tool to have going when there’s something big/newsworthy happening (think no-hitter, tie game few seconds left, amazing plays, etc.). As soon as technology is able to withstand that kinda of bandwidth use, we’ll start to see more streaming content on demand showing up on our social media. What Rovell mentioned that was so intriguing to me was the ability to charge for that viewing privilege. That is brilliant- charge a buck a game or whatever and that league will have a WINDFALL of cash. Everybody wins. People get cheap sports on demand, leagues get more money, advertisers get more eyeballs, twitter gets more hashtags. The best part, from a consumers perspective, is that I’m not shelling out $130-150 for the MLB network when I’d probably only actually want to pay for about 60 games because of my schedule. I’d never thought about charging on a per-game basis, but I love that Idea, and you could work some massive business deals for exclusive streaming rights with the different leagues.

I’m just spitballin** here, and I’ve already blogged about my solution for fixing the MLB, but hear me out on this. Legal Sports Gambling is coming. I don’t know how long it will take, but it will get here eventually. My guess is that it will be heavily regulated, but I’d expect it should arrive within the next 10 years. There’s just too much at stake for it not to become commonplace. Once legalized gambling is given the green light, the technology should be able to handle “live-betting” which will be the next wave of gambling degenerates. For those who don’t know, you can bet on much more than just the spread or the outcome of the game, because you’ll be able to bet on more things as they occur in real time. Once this type of betting hits the mainstream it’s going to catch on faster than a Yellowstone fire in the summer of ’88.

Currently, we have a battle going on between FanDuel, Draft Kings, and the US Court system to see what happens as we move forward into the era of daily fantasy sports and legalized sports gambling. These sites have discovered and exposed a goldmine of suckers (like me) that are just waiting to be exploited for capital gain. Daily Fantasy sites have built themselves into a BILLION dollar business in about 2 years by exploiting a loophole that essential allows gambling. I’m a strong believer that ‘where there is a market, there is a business’, and business always finds a way. Legal sports gambling is coming, people, and it can’t get here soon enough.

Just imagine the ability to bet on stuff like this in real time:

  • Will the next play be a “run” or a “pass”?
  • What will be the result of this batter “hit” “walk” “strikeout”?
  • Will Steph Curry score more or less than 15 in the first half?
  • Over under 40 points scored in the first quarter by both teams.
  • Who will score the first basket in this game?
  • What will the result of the coin toss be?
  • Over under total gametime of 3 hours 20 minutes.
  • and on, and on, and on.

The best part about the Superbowl is watching for your prop bets. Now picture the ability to have prop bets going for every game you watch and how much fun that would be.

**When I read “spitballin” to myself, this scene from First Kid popped in my head. Just an awesome visual and flawless execution from Sinbad.

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PPS- If you enjoyed this blog, you may like this one where I discuss the future of technology and my thoughts on 10 years from now.

 

 

 

 

2016 Atlanta Hawks Season Outlook: My One and Only Hawks Blog (probably)

I know that 99.9% of you don’t give two shits about the Atlanta Hawks.

For that reason, I almost never blog about them, because I know y’all don’t care. But the fact of the matter is, is that I’m a die hard Atlanta fan. The Braves are my favorite ATL team, but the Hawks aren’t far behind. I grew up playing basketball and played through high school, so basketball has always been a big part of my life. I’ve probably been to over 200 hawks games, and keep in mind that I grew up during the era when the Hawks missed the playoffs and were the worst in the league for about 15 years. For those who remember the Shareef-Abdul-Rahim days, you’ll know how brutal it was rooting for this team.

atlanta hawks gif

But then last year happened. The Hawks came out of nowhere and absolutely lit the entire league on fire. They went from 38 wins in the 2013-14 season to a franchise record 60 wins in the 2014-15 season. They came out red hot, got even hotter in the middle of the year (winning 19 straight), and cooled off a little at the end when they eventually ran into Lebron in the playoffs. All around great season though. Nobody expected it, not even Hawks fans themselves. During the 2007-2013 era we were always decent contenders, but always seemed to finish around 6-8th place in the East and would end up with a first or second round playoff exit. Being destined for mediocrity during our best years was something that Hawks fans had become all to familiar with.

hawks allstars

Then we hired Coach Bud from the Spurs and everything seemed to change. Front office man Danny Ferry actually made some amazing roster moves, and built one of the most well rounded teams in the NBA. Under coach Bud’s leadership, he implemented the San Antonio style of offense and roster. We acquired big and fast players, who could all score and play great defense.

I’ve said it before, but for the second straight year, we are one of the most complete teams in the NBA. Every player on this team has a role, and they know their role. The Hawks are the deepest team in the East and this will prove huge down the stretch when we have fresh legs in the playoffs. The only thing we lack is a consistent big rebounder down low, or someone to go up against a huge center such as Anthony Davis. The addition of Tiago Splitter during the off-season should prove to be a tremendous asset this year. Here are the key off-season moves by the Hawks:

Key Losses:demarre

Demarre Carroll– I’m going to miss watching this guy play. He was one of the hardest players last year for the hawks. He wasn’t the greatest offensive player, but he would hustle and bang harder than anyone else in the NBA. He played so well that Toronto offered him a max deal, and the Hawks had to make a decision to either pay Demarre or pay Paul Millsap. In the end the Hawks chose to pay Millsap, and had to part ways with Demarre.

Pero Antic– He was a very average center. There was no other way to describe him. pero2He did some good things, but he would also disappear at times. He was never a great rebounder, but he was an above average offensive option for the hawks last year in limited minutes. He wasn’t very quick on his feet though, and this led to his poor defense and freaquent foul trouble. Pero left the Hawks and signed a 2 year deal with a Turkish National team in his home country.

Key Additions:

Tiago Splitter– I love this move. It was an extremely important addition to our squad after losing the junkyard dog Demarre Carroll. Tiago fits our system nicely because he’s a long defender who’s great at passing. We won’t need him to score much, but he can do that if tiagonecessary. He scored and average of almost 8 points a game last year for the Spurs in under 17 minutes a game. That’s about double what Pero did for the Hawks last year. Splitter is known as a “High IQ” guy- someone who’s always in the right position, and always make the right play. Again, Splitter looks like he’ll be a perfect fit for the Hawks.

Justin Holiday– In the limited amount of games I’ve seen him play, it’s hard not justin holidayto love this guys game. This kid has a HELL of a backstory. He went undrafted in 2011. He went and played overseas, and eventually played his way into the D-League. Finally made the NBA, and had limited stints in PHI and GS before landing with Hawks this offseason. This guy is known as a great defender who can defend multiple positions. He fills out the roster nicely to make the Hawks one of the deepest teams in the NBA. He’s mentioned himself that he’s part of an important 2nd team, and there’s no drop off in talent when the Hawks put in their second unit.

People will always overlook the hawks because of their “lack” of traditional star power and household names, and I’m absolutely fine with that. Keep doubting us, and we’ll just keep winning. On any given night we have 5-7 guys that can score double figures. Jeff Teague is a budding superstar. He could probably score 30 a night if he wanted to, but the Hawks system doesn’t require him to do so. If the Hawks can stay healthy this season (especially during the playoffs), they’ll once again meet either Toronto or Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals. Unfortunately, the Golden State Warriors are busy building a dynasty out West, and it looks like they’re going to be the team to beat for the next 5 years. We’ll see how it shakes out, but it should be a fun NBA Season none the less. Last year, was some of the most fun I’ve had watching a basketball team, and I can’t wait to do it all over again.

The hawks are currently 50-1 odds (according to oddsshark) to win the NBA Championship. That’s worth every penny.

Hawks 2016 odds

hawks kid loves it

I’m done with DraftKings, FanDuel etc.

DraftKings is gambling. It exists in a grey area of gambling hidden behind the veil of a “game of skill” which is why they’re able to toe the line and keep operating.

DraftKings ads have become the most insufferable advertisements on the internet/TV/Radio etc. They’re literally everywhere, and there’s no end in sight. They are a Billion dollar industry who’s signed up over 1.5 million users in the past two months alone.draftkings2

At the end of the day, DraftKings is not regulated by the government. It’s the wild fucking west of legalized sports gambling, and there’s no way to really investigate any wrongdoings.

draftkings3There have been rumblings about funny things going on behind the scenes with DraftKings for a while now. Users have complained of lineups being modified post the event start times, and accusations of fake accounts and insider information have been going around as well. With all these new users, there’s a much larger microscope on the fishy stuff going on.

Personally I’ve noticed a big drop in significant payout for these bigger contests. The top makes more money, and they may pay out more people, but it it seems far less significant these days than it was in the earlier days.  If you’re interested in seeing this first hand, read these two DraftKings blogs I did a few months ago. It’s a good read :

Part 1- How to win money in Draftkings

Part 2- Results 

Today, the headlines are all about a DraftKings employee who admitted to using inside information to win $350,000 in a big tournament with a similar competitor-FanDuel (source). Currently there are no rules against DraftKings employees playing FanDuel and vise versa but that’s about to change real quick.

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I have a strong feeling that this is just the tip of the iceberg. We’re going to start seeing these stories of corruption popping up all the time. My guess is that DraftKings is going to get so colluded that it will end up suffering the same fate as online poker back in the mid 2000’s. Eventually the government will come in and shut it down. The money train is still going full steam ahead for now, but there seems to be no light at the end of this tunnel. The trust is starting to erode and it’s only a matter of time before these daily fantasy sites crumble faster than a piece of stale bread.

So I’m saying it now. I’m done with DraftKings. It’s just not that fun anymore anyway.

imout

US Open was Awesome and Here are My DraftKings Results (As Promised)

US Open 2015 picks

First I would go back and read this blog here to understand the following results. I promised to update how I did when I wrote it.

Team M:
  • Final Result: 37,665 out of 143125
  • Percentile: 73.7
  • Money paid: top 29,746 (>79.3 percentile)
  • Result: Lost $20.00

Quick thoughts:
– I had 5/6 guys make the cut (all but Fowler). The key to making money is have all 6 make the cut. I only had one roster where all 6 guys made the cut (Team Z), and that was the only one that would have won money.
– I probably cursed Ricky Fowler because he was my highest ranked player by far and went out and shot one of the worst rounds of his career. If he has an average day I’m making money.
– On these types of tourney’s I rarely lose money. I’d say I’d only actually lose money about 15-20% of the time. This just happened to be one of those times, and even so I was actually pretty close to getting my money back.

Just for fun let’s go back and see how the other teams I was considering fared. If you don’t remember, I drafted 4 teams, and really had a tough time deciding between ‘team M’ and ‘team P’ while ultimately deciding on ‘Team M’. I also considered entering all 4 teams at one point, and it will be interesting to see how that would have played out, and if I would have netted at least 80 bucks back.

As I’m writing this blog I realized that DraftKings doesn’t make the scoring available to you if you want to see how other players did. This makes analyzing the results especially difficult, and the only way to do it is by hand if you don’t have one of the golfers.

For example, I can’t just see how many fantasy points Phil Michelson had in DraftKings. This is really frustrating for someone that’s just trying to find out some pretty basic results. DraftKings doesn’t want to give this info, because I’m guessing that they want you to sign up for another tournament to have access to the stats that you need when you select your team. In my honest opinion, its a savvy move by DraftKings from a business standpoint (bleeding every last dollar out of the player), but it enrages me as a fantasy player who wants to retroactivly go back and look at results for other players.

I’ve come to the conclusion that the only way to do it is by hand. Here’s the Fantasy scoring rules for DraftKings

Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
1st: 30 PTs
2nd: 20 PTs
3rd: 18 PTs
4th: 16 PTs
5th: 14 PTs
6th: 12 PTs
7th: 10 PTs
8th: 9 PTs
9th: 8 PTs
10th: 7 PTs
11th–15th: 6 PTs
16th–20th: 5 PTs
21st–25th: 4 PTs
26th–30th: 3 PTs
31st–40th: 2 PTs
41st-50th: 1 PTs

The Site best for stats is http://www.pgatour.com/yahoo/leaderboard.html

Who the fuck actually has the time to do this shit by hand?? The answer…Nobody! And that’s exactly the way that DraftKings wants it. They want to keep people from finding an edge wherever they can.

For the sake of this blog I’m going to go through and manually calculate the totals Player by player on my Excel sheet and past the result below.

final scores Us open

us open teams

Here are the results that would have been, and the payout in parenthesis. Organized by: Score, (payout), & Percentile

  • Team M – 321.5 ($0.00) 73.7th percentile
  • Team P – 296.5 ($0.00)
  • Team Z – 351.5 ($30.00) ~90th percentile
  • Team E – 318.0 ($0.00)

I would have won 30 bucks on one of my teams, but it wouldn’t have been enough to cover all 4 teams.

But now you see the importance of having players make the cut in DraftKings and why it makes sense to draft a consistent group of players. Only 3 of the 14 different players I selected didn’t make the cut (Fowler, Watson, Moore) Fowler and Watson were absolute shockers. If Fowler makes it, and has an average round, I make 40 bucks on my lineup with ‘Team M’. That just goes to show you how difficult it is to consistently win money in these events, because one bad round can fuck your whole team. Golf is the great equalizer, and you have to be very consistent to win. Even though this particular tournament was a loss, the method I’ve outlined in these blogs gives you a good opportunity to win consistently.

THE MAIN POINT OF THIS BLOG IS TO ADVISE YOU TO NOT WASTE YOUR TIME WITH DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENTS LIKE THIS ONE. YOU’LL DO A LOT OF WORK, AND NEED A LOT OF LUCK TO MAKE ANY REAL MONEY. IN THE END, THE PROFIT TO BE MADE IS VERY SMALL. MY ADVICE IT TO JUST BET INDIVIDUAL TOURNAMENT WINNERS ON ANOTHER SPORTSBOOK. I TYPICALLY GO WITH THE TOP 5 FAVORITE GUYS AND BET 20 BUCKS EACH. YOU’LL WIN MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN YOU THINK, AND WHEN YOU DO, THE PAYOUT IS MUCH BETTER. 20 BUCKS ON SPIETH AT 8-1 ODDS WOULD HAVE GOTTEN $160 AND IF DUSTIN JOHNSON HITS A PUT, 20 BUCKS (AT 18:1) TURNS INTO $360 REAL QUICK.

To win just $250 in this same DraftKings contest, you’d have to finish 151-200 overall out of the 143,125 entries. That means that you’d have to finish in 99.8-99.9 percentile (an almost impossible feat) and only for a measly $250 bucks. It makes much more sense to take 30 seconds, bet 20 bucks on a couple favorites, sit back, and collect your money 4 days later.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this trip into the mind of Rain Man Salsa.

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Introducing Fan Angel: A Game Changing Crowd Funding Source for College Athletes

Have you ever heard something and immediately think ‘man that’s a great idea, I’ve never thought of that before’? That’s exactly what I was thinking when I heard this potentially monumental idea this morning on ESPN Radio. It’s hard to explain, so watch this quick 1 minute video to familiarize yourself with the concept, so that the rest of this blog will make sense to you.

I’m just a common man, so I’m going to break it down on a common man’s level to the best of my ability:

1. Pick a player in any sport and make a challenge

2. Pledge an amount of money upon completion of your challenge

3. Set pledge incentives (player x only gets my pledge if he does y and z)

4. Upon Graduation, the player has options to receive a percentage of the pledged money provided he accomplished the established incentive parameters.

a. Player gets 80% of the money
b. Teammates of player get 10%
c. 10% goes to a scholarship fund, NCAA, Wounded warrior project, charity, etc.

5. If your challenge is not met by the player, you receive your money back.

fanangel1

The main concept is essentially a kickstarter/gofundme for athletes at any level in sports.That is how I understand it, and I fucking LOVE this idea. Ovbiously the most controversial part of this concept is what to do with college athletes, because the NCAA rules with an iron fist. The idea of keeping your favorite college athletes around for a little longer and giving them some cash if they play well is very appealing to fans and boosters across the nation. After listening to the Radio interview with the Harvard grad behind the concept this morning, it seems (to me) like the NCAA wants no part in this. My guess is that they’ll take their company, Fan Angel, and go on a public media blitz to drum up support from fans to put pressure on the NCAA. It will be VERY interesting to see how this all plays out.Check them out at: https://www.fanangel.com/#/splash 

PS- It’s always fun to play “watch the follows” as these types of things gain traction in the media and go viral- just remember that Salsa got you in on the ground level:

fanangel65

fan feature

Salsa’s superbowl props take you into Superbowl weekend

I’ll Keep it short and simple here. Here’s your Sunday winners.

First, click here for Pwagon’s props, and click here for a superbowl dip that will knock your fucking socks off.

Now lets win some money.
Novelty:
National Anthem: OVER 122.5 SECONDS +115
Bellichick Hoodie color: Blue +155
Hoodie style: SLEEVES +170 STONE COLD LOCK
Katy Perry wardrobe: Pants/shorts/anyother +165
Katy Perry Hair: Black/Brown +150
Show Cleavage: No +350
Marshawn Lynch Croch Grab: NO -400
Nielsen TV Rating: Under 47.5 -145 STONE COLD LOCK
Gatorade on Winning Coach: CLEAR +250

superbowl-xlix_home_page
SEATTLE to win
1st Half UNDER 24
1st Qtr tie at end: YES +280
Coin toss: HEADS -101
Seahawks to win coin toss -101
winner of coin toss to win game: NO -101
Either team score in first 5.5 minutes? YES +110
Team to score first? NE -120
1st score (either team) will be: TD -150
Longest TD: UNDER 44.5 yards
Either team to score in the last 2 mins of 1st half? YES -250
Team to commit first penalty: SEA -150
both teams to make 32+ yard FGs: YES -115
total sacks BOTH TEAMS: UNDER 4.5 -125
Total TD’s in the game: OVER 5.5 -105
Will there be OT: NO -800
Total interceptions (both teams): OVER 1.5 -155
Defensive or Special Teams TD? YES +150
Katy-Perry

#12s