US Open was Awesome and Here are My DraftKings Results (As Promised)

US Open 2015 picks

First I would go back and read this blog here to understand the following results. I promised to update how I did when I wrote it.

Team M:
  • Final Result: 37,665 out of 143125
  • Percentile: 73.7
  • Money paid: top 29,746 (>79.3 percentile)
  • Result: Lost $20.00

Quick thoughts:
– I had 5/6 guys make the cut (all but Fowler). The key to making money is have all 6 make the cut. I only had one roster where all 6 guys made the cut (Team Z), and that was the only one that would have won money.
– I probably cursed Ricky Fowler because he was my highest ranked player by far and went out and shot one of the worst rounds of his career. If he has an average day I’m making money.
– On these types of tourney’s I rarely lose money. I’d say I’d only actually lose money about 15-20% of the time. This just happened to be one of those times, and even so I was actually pretty close to getting my money back.

Just for fun let’s go back and see how the other teams I was considering fared. If you don’t remember, I drafted 4 teams, and really had a tough time deciding between ‘team M’ and ‘team P’ while ultimately deciding on ‘Team M’. I also considered entering all 4 teams at one point, and it will be interesting to see how that would have played out, and if I would have netted at least 80 bucks back.

As I’m writing this blog I realized that DraftKings doesn’t make the scoring available to you if you want to see how other players did. This makes analyzing the results especially difficult, and the only way to do it is by hand if you don’t have one of the golfers.

For example, I can’t just see how many fantasy points Phil Michelson had in DraftKings. This is really frustrating for someone that’s just trying to find out some pretty basic results. DraftKings doesn’t want to give this info, because I’m guessing that they want you to sign up for another tournament to have access to the stats that you need when you select your team. In my honest opinion, its a savvy move by DraftKings from a business standpoint (bleeding every last dollar out of the player), but it enrages me as a fantasy player who wants to retroactivly go back and look at results for other players.

I’ve come to the conclusion that the only way to do it is by hand. Here’s the Fantasy scoring rules for DraftKings

Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
1st: 30 PTs
2nd: 20 PTs
3rd: 18 PTs
4th: 16 PTs
5th: 14 PTs
6th: 12 PTs
7th: 10 PTs
8th: 9 PTs
9th: 8 PTs
10th: 7 PTs
11th–15th: 6 PTs
16th–20th: 5 PTs
21st–25th: 4 PTs
26th–30th: 3 PTs
31st–40th: 2 PTs
41st-50th: 1 PTs

The Site best for stats is http://www.pgatour.com/yahoo/leaderboard.html

Who the fuck actually has the time to do this shit by hand?? The answer…Nobody! And that’s exactly the way that DraftKings wants it. They want to keep people from finding an edge wherever they can.

For the sake of this blog I’m going to go through and manually calculate the totals Player by player on my Excel sheet and past the result below.

final scores Us open

us open teams

Here are the results that would have been, and the payout in parenthesis. Organized by: Score, (payout), & Percentile

  • Team M – 321.5 ($0.00) 73.7th percentile
  • Team P – 296.5 ($0.00)
  • Team Z – 351.5 ($30.00) ~90th percentile
  • Team E – 318.0 ($0.00)

I would have won 30 bucks on one of my teams, but it wouldn’t have been enough to cover all 4 teams.

But now you see the importance of having players make the cut in DraftKings and why it makes sense to draft a consistent group of players. Only 3 of the 14 different players I selected didn’t make the cut (Fowler, Watson, Moore) Fowler and Watson were absolute shockers. If Fowler makes it, and has an average round, I make 40 bucks on my lineup with ‘Team M’. That just goes to show you how difficult it is to consistently win money in these events, because one bad round can fuck your whole team. Golf is the great equalizer, and you have to be very consistent to win. Even though this particular tournament was a loss, the method I’ve outlined in these blogs gives you a good opportunity to win consistently.

THE MAIN POINT OF THIS BLOG IS TO ADVISE YOU TO NOT WASTE YOUR TIME WITH DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENTS LIKE THIS ONE. YOU’LL DO A LOT OF WORK, AND NEED A LOT OF LUCK TO MAKE ANY REAL MONEY. IN THE END, THE PROFIT TO BE MADE IS VERY SMALL. MY ADVICE IT TO JUST BET INDIVIDUAL TOURNAMENT WINNERS ON ANOTHER SPORTSBOOK. I TYPICALLY GO WITH THE TOP 5 FAVORITE GUYS AND BET 20 BUCKS EACH. YOU’LL WIN MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN YOU THINK, AND WHEN YOU DO, THE PAYOUT IS MUCH BETTER. 20 BUCKS ON SPIETH AT 8-1 ODDS WOULD HAVE GOTTEN $160 AND IF DUSTIN JOHNSON HITS A PUT, 20 BUCKS (AT 18:1) TURNS INTO $360 REAL QUICK.

To win just $250 in this same DraftKings contest, you’d have to finish 151-200 overall out of the 143,125 entries. That means that you’d have to finish in 99.8-99.9 percentile (an almost impossible feat) and only for a measly $250 bucks. It makes much more sense to take 30 seconds, bet 20 bucks on a couple favorites, sit back, and collect your money 4 days later.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this trip into the mind of Rain Man Salsa.

rainman

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